Tuna Dave's Blackjack Diary

The Elements of My Blackjack Strategy

Over the past 10+ years, I have developed a multi-faceted strategy that has worked well for me. It is not a strategy for anyone who intends to make a profit playing blackjack. The only way to "beat" the game long-term is to learn how to count cards. And, although this will give you a positive expectation, your life expectancy as a player will be limited. Once casinos discover that you are a card-counter, they will ban you, regardless of whether you are winning or losing.

So, I developed a strategy for people like me who are recreational blackjack players. I have found that by following the strict rules I will set out, you will be in a position to come close to playing even over the long term. For a recreational player, this in and of itself is a "win" for two reasons: First, you will eliminate your concern about losing large sums of money playing blackjack. Second, once you become comfortable with the strategy and are willing to up your bets, you stand a better chance of taking advantage of the multitude of "comps" offered by casinos. So, with a combination of no loss or only a nominal loss and various comps, you will come out ahead and have a great time to boot.

There are six facets to my strategy. I will discuss each of them in detail in separate posts. However, as an introduction to the strategy, these are the six areas of concern:

1. Blackjack playing strategy
2. Betting strategy
3. Money management
4. Discipline
5. Setting stop-loss limits
6. Miscellaneous considerations

Check out future posts for detailed information about these areas.

Ongoing Financial Results as of 08/17/08

This was the second blackjack trip with the new Hard Rock blackjack venture. Although it was a losing session, it was fun and encouraging. My blackjack instincts are coming back.

Starting Balance: $20.00

Trip Win/Loss: ($46.00)

Ending Balance: ($26.00)

This was the second blackjack trip with the new Hard Rock blackjack venture. Although it was a losing session, it was fun and encouraging. My blackjack instincts are coming back.

Starting Balance: $20.00

Trip Win/Loss: ($46.00)

Ending Balance: ($26.00)

Session Two

On Sunday, I took another trip to Hard Rock to see if there was $10 blackjack. To my surprise, there were tables going at $10 after Noon. The situation is getting better all the time.

I sat at the first table I could find, at 3rd base. I enjoy that position. I am the last to act before the dealer and get lots of support from other players due to my predictable and steady play.

Unlike Saturday, this was not a particularly friendly table. Everyone was way too serious and people kept coming and going. Also, there were a few players who had no idea what they were doing. Not that it bothers me; I couldn't care less how anybody else plays. Some people are superstitious about it, saying that other people's bad play affects their results. I just don't buy into it.

Unlike Saturday, where the dealers put the cut card at about 1.5 decks, today all of the dealers were putting the cut card at 2+ decks. Not good for us players. So it goes.

This was a classic roller-coaster session for me. I initially started with lots of opportunities. I had a 6-6 vs. 4 on a $40 bet. Needless to say, I split them and pulled a 4 on the first hand. So, as per basic strategy, I doubled down and got a bad card. I don't remember exactly what it was. However, my recollection is that it was a five or a six. I got a 10 on the other 6 and stayed. So, at this point, I had $120 out on the table. These are the kinds of hands that make or break a session. Needless to say, the dealer hit a 21. I was now already down $120, and I had just started. Not a good sign.

After trading chips for a short while, I had a $40 bet out. Believe it or not, I was able to pop a blackjack. With that, I made $90 ($100 payoff less my initial $10 bet); and I was almost back to even.

Then, a while later, when I was once again at a $40 hand, the dealer popped a blackjack and pulled away my $40.

After that, the dealer kept pulling 21's on all kinds of hands, and I was down a bunch again.

Then, I had a $50 hand (blackjack on a $10 bet and a win on the $25 bet). To my surprise, the dealer busted and I made another $90. At this point, I was up a little over $50. However, since I had not reached my 60-minute session time limit and I had not even come close to my five-hands-in-a-row stop loss, I kept playing. However, I put aside my $50+ profit so that I was not putting more than $300 at risk for the session. (This is part of my money management strategy that I will deal with in the Blackjack Strategy section.)

I started drifting downward from that point and could not catch a hand. The dealer kept beating whatever I put up. So, at the end of my 60-minute session, I got up from the table.

Although I ended the session with a small loss, I had a good time and enjoyed myself. I also found my instincts coming back, and my play was more natural. Kind of like riding a bicycle; it all came back to me.

Session Summary: 60 minutes - ($46.00)

Ongoing Financial Results as of 08/16/08

This category will maintain a tally of the ongoing results of my Hard Rock blackjack venture.

This was the first blackjack trip with the new Hard Rock blackjack venture. So, there are no financial results to carry forward. As a result, the starting balance is obviously $0.

Starting Balance: $0.00

Trip Win/Loss: $20.00

Ending Balance: $20.00

Session One

This was the first session in my Hard Rock blackjack venture. It was exciting to be able to sit at a table and actually play once again. Because of the novelty of blackjack in Florida, until this session, I was unable to find a table at the $10 limit that I want to play.

This first session was on a Saturday morning. The casino was fairly busy, with the blackjack tables about half to 2/3 full. I walked around looking for an appropriate $10 table. To my surprise, I could only find one table available at this limit. Needless to say, it was full. I decided to be patient and wait.

It took me about 20 minutes for one of the players to get up. He had done very well in the spot and decided to leave with his profit. So, as soon as he got up, I grabbed the seat. There were others waiting as well. Fortunately, I was "first in line." So, nobody objected to my taking the seat. Althought not significant, as a matter of interest, I took the seat directly facing the dealer.

Since I had to wait so long, I realized that I would not have long to play. I had a pre-arranged "date" for poker with a friend at the Isle for 1:00 P.M. So, I realized that I would only be able to get in about 30 minutes of play.

I pulled out my normal session stake of $300. As typical, I asked for $200 in green chips, $95 in red, and $5 in white. As will become clear when I lay out my strategy in full in the Blackjack Strategy category of this weblog, the five white chips are to be used to track consecutive losses.

In order to prevent against getting hammered in a dealer-friendly shoe, I have established a policy that any time I lose five hands in succession, I will either get up from the table or sit out the balance of the shoe. So, the five white chips help me keep track of consecutive losses.

Since I am using a bet progression program in my play, I started play with a $10 bet. Although a complete explanation of the progression is forthcoming in the Blackjack Strategy category, suffice it to say for purposes of this post that I use a modified version of a $10-$20-$40 progression.

As I mentioned previously, the table was full. As I found out from chatting with a rather attractive lady sitting to my left, everybody at the table had been sitting there most of the morning. So, I was lucky to even get the chance to play. Fortunately, the gentlemen who gave up his seat left at the beginning of a new shoe. So, I was able to start play essentially with a full six-deck shoe.

Since the others at the table had been playing together for some time, it was a friendly, chatty group. It was a very relaxed atmosphere, exactly as I like it to be.

The session did not start out very well for me. In fact, I kept losing for the entire first shoe. Although I won a few hands, and got to the third level of my progression ($40) a few times, I was not able to win that third hand. So, by the end of the first shoe, I was down almost $100.

The second shoe did not start out any better for me. I continued to lose. At one point I was down almost $150.00. Then miraculously my luck turned. I was able to get to a $40 third-level progression hand. I won that hand, for a $70 profit. Now I was starting to feel a bit better.

Things settled down for awhile, as I "traded chips" with the dealer. I got a couple of second stage $20 bets that went nowhere. Then, on the first stage of a progression ($10) I got a blackjack. My progression strategy calls for me to let the bet ride. So, on the second stage I had $25 at risk. I was fortunate to get two picture cards; and the dealer proceeded to bust. So, now I was at a $50 third stage progression bet. Once again, I got two picture cards. This time, although the dealer did not bust, he got a 19. So, with this progression, I made a $90 profit.

The $50 progression hand was the last hand of the shoe. And, since it was time for me to leave for poker, I "colored up" my chips and prepared for the count. The dealer counted out $320, leaving me with a $20 profit for the session.

Although I was pleased to get a profit in my first session, I was not all that comfortable playing. I am a bit "rusty" still. I had to think a little too long on how to play various hands. It is essential that I stick to basic strategy and that the hand-playing decisions be automatic. I will need to practice at home to get back into shape for the "competition." Despite being rusty, I do not recall making any hand-decision errors or betting errors.

All in all, a good way to start this new venture.

A New Experiment

Now that the Hard Rock in Hollywood, Florida has blackjack, I am starting to play again. Like in my previous ventures, I will keep track of each session as well as maintaining an ongoing tally of my financial results.

I have created three categories to track this venture:

1. Hard Rock Blackjack: This will be the "parent" category to include all posts I create relating to my blackjack play at Hard Rock.

2. Hard Rock Sessions: This will be a running commentary on my play in each session, as well as providing information about playing conditions, date and time, and other issues that I found interesting or amusing.

3. Ongoing Hard Rock Financial Results - $10 Progression: This is where I will maintain an ongoing tally of my overall financial results for my Hard Rock play.

When playing, I will be using the play and money management strategies that I have developed and refined over the years. In a separate category in this weblog, entitled Blackjack Strategy, I will begin to outline the detailed strategy that I use. The purpose of this weblog is to track the success of the strategy over time.

Although blackjack has been available at Hard Rock for a couple of months now, I have been unable to play until recently. Because of the novelty of blackjack in Florida, Hard Rock has been able to leverage this by keeping the table minimums high. For the most part, the lowest table minimums have been $25. An exception to this has been on the continuous shuffle machine tables, which have a $15 minimum. So, I have patiently waited until the novelty has worn off and the table minimums come down.

It appears that the shift is beginning to happen. Although at the moment,  I can only find $10 tables in the morning hours, I can work around this by playing on weekends. I am certain that eventually the $10 table limits will expand to additional hours, and I will have more opportunities to play.

That being said, it is now on to the tables!